MONTREAL (RecyclingMonster): Constraints in U.S. hazardous-waste treatment and disposal capacity could have measurable consequences for industrial production as domestic manufacturing expands, according to a new economic analysis by Charles River Associates commissioned by Veolia.

The report, Hazardous Waste Management: A Hidden Input to US Economic Growth, examines hazardous-waste generation across the economy and models what could happen if available treatment and disposal capacity fails to keep pace with industrial demand.

CRA's analysis draws on detailed facility-level data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and finds that hazardous-waste management functions as an input across a much broader range of industries than the waste sector alone.

U.S. Hazardous Waste Generation Could Reach 37.4 Million Tons by 2033

The United States currently generates more than 30 million tons of hazardous waste annually, according to the analysis.

CRA projects that volume could reach approximately 37.4 million tons per year by 2033, roughly 5 million tons above current levels.

The report attributes expected growth in part to expanding industrial production and policies encouraging domestic manufacturing and reshoring in sectors including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, batteries and steel.

Manufacturing currently accounts for about 90% of hazardous waste generated nationally, CRA found. Generation is particularly concentrated in chemicals, petroleum and coal products, metals and semiconductor manufacturing.

1% Capacity Shortfall Modeled at $27.5 Billion in Lost 2033 Output

The analysis models the economic consequences of persistent constraints in the ability to treat and dispose of hazardous waste.

Under CRA's modeling, a 1% shortfall in hazardous-waste management capacity would reduce projected real U.S. gross output in 2033 by approximately $27.5 billion compared with the study's baseline projection.

A 3% shortfall would increase the modeled reduction to approximately $82.4 billion.

Those figures represent economic modeling scenarios rather than estimates of current losses or predictions that a nationwide capacity shortage will necessarily occur.

Industrial Growth Increases Dependence on Waste Treatment Infrastructure

CRA said the three most waste-intensive sectors — chemicals, petroleum and coal products, and metals — generate more than 75,000 tons of hazardous waste per day.

Those industries collectively contribute nearly $1 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product and support approximately 2.7 million jobs, illustrating the connection the study draws between industrial production and hazardous-waste management capacity.

The report also notes that many other sectors depend indirectly on industries that generate hazardous waste, including agriculture, food production and pharmaceutical manufacturing.

CRA Examined Lessons From the 2020-2024 Incineration Backlog

As part of the analysis, CRA reviewed the hazardous-waste incineration backlog experienced between 2020 and 2024 to assess factors that can limit treatment and disposal availability.

The study identifies closures of on-site and captive facilities, unplanned maintenance and operational outages, large-scale remediation and disaster-response activity, and regulatory complexity among the factors that could influence capacity.

These constraints can be significant because hazardous waste often requires specialized treatment technologies, permitted facilities and specific handling routes that cannot be easily replaced when capacity is unavailable.

Study Was Commissioned by Veolia

The research was conducted by Charles River Associates after Veolia retained CRA to study the role of hazardous-waste management in industrial activity and economic growth.

Veolia operates hazardous-waste treatment and disposal services in the United States. The company's commercial position in the sector makes the commissioning relationship relevant context when evaluating the study's conclusions.

CRA author Alan Jaske said the analysis indicates that effective hazardous-waste management is relevant not only to environmental and public-health policy but also to industrial activity and economic growth.

As U.S. manufacturing investment expands, the report argues that treatment, storage and disposal infrastructure will need to remain aligned with the volume and geographic distribution of hazardous waste generated by industrial facilities.